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Greyhound Track Bias

The Science Of Greyhound Track Bias

Due to the short distances over which greyhound races are run, all trap numbers win at approximately the same rate. Whilst this is true of the greyhound scene as a whole, there are some definite cases of what is known as 'track bias' which all bettors could profit from if they only knew about it!

Let us take a recent meeting at Monmore dog track as an illustration. There were 12 races on the card, and the results were as follows:

RACE          TRAP 1-2-3
01              3-1-2
02              2-4-5
03              1-3-6
04              1-2-3
05              1-4-5
06              1-2-6
07              1-3-4
08              1-5-4
09              4-5-6
10              1-3-2
11              5-3-2
12              2-1-6

Amazingly, Trap 1 won 7 out of the 12 races, which is a phenomenal 58 per cent strike rate (as opposed to the expected average of 16.66 per cent)! And in case you think that these trap 1 winners were all odds-on favourites, here are the actual starting prices (in order):

2/1, 6/4, 5/2, 4/1, 5/2, 4/1, 7/2

Now imagine if you had known that trap 1 was due to figure heavily in that particular days results. A modest £1 win on Trap 1 in every race would have cost you £13-20 including tax. At the end of the day you would have received a return of £27, and so made a profit of 13.8 points!

This scenario isn't as rare as it might seem, and being able to predict such occurrences is relatively simple. Let us explain:

We know that, on average, each trap number will win approximately the same number of times. Yet some traps go through long losing runs, and then all of a sudden 'come back' to make up the numbers. This is what happened at Monmore in the illustration above.

To be able to predict such an occurrence, you should keep a close eye on the trap numbers which win at the major BAGS meetings. Most sporting dailies carry 'stats tables' which reveal the length of each traps current losing run (if any exists). They also reveal the longest losing run which that trap has ever recorded. This will save you having to keep the information on your own charts (although this should be done if you wish to seriously exploit track bias).

Many professionals use this information to tell them which trap to bet on during a particular day. They wait until the present losing run is almost as long as the longest losing run ever recorded, and then step in to take the spoils when the losing run is broken.

Of course, sometimes a trap wins more often than not due to purely physical factors. On days when the rain is pouring, a track bias often emerges, and it is usually the inner traps (1,2 and 3) which gain favour. This is because these dogs are closest to the rail and when taking corners they do not have to run as wide as traps 4,5 and 6.

When the dogs corner on a wet surface, it is likely that all of them will slide towards the outside of the track at some stage. But dogs 1, 2 and 3 will slip outwards and most probably hamper dogs 4,5 or 6. Thus the outer traps suffer mostly whilst the inner traps recover from their 'slips' (thanks to being buffeted by dogs 4,5 and 6) and go on to claim victory.

At other tracks there is a genuine 'bias' which is caused by the layout of the track itself. Such tracks can be identified by referring to the 'stats tables' mentioned a few moments ago and noting any trap which has either:

i) A much lower 'longest ever losing run' figure than the others, or:
ii) A much higher winning percentage than the other traps.

In these cases it is a good idea to bet on that trap when market support is also present. In other words, if Trap 6 (for example) appears to show some bias over the other traps, you should bet on any Trap 6 dog which is also a favourite in the betting market.

This strategy combines the science of track bias with the betting market (and thus the perceived chance of the dogs success) and many professional dog bettors swear it works wonders. Some even call it their 'secret money machine'! Don't just take our word for it when we say that track bias exists and can be used to make good money. Keep your eyes on the greyhound results and see for yourself that every once in a while, one trap wins far more often than any other. When you have that settled in your mind, take one of the techniques given above and start profiting from it!

Track bias - a little known science that can make winning on greyhounds as easy as 1-2-3...